Before we jump in, I’d like to stress the fact the players below have value, but not at the spot they are typically being drafted (ADP). In other words, if you can land them later in your draft, they might very well become worthwhile.

By avoiding these players at their current ADP, you’ll find better production and you still might be able to snag them down the line, a few rounds later when the price is right.


Hines Ward
Hines Ward is one of the best WRs currently in the NFL, he has amazing hands and is always fearless when going across the middle. Yet, he's still not an elite fantasy WR. That may sound contradicting but it simply means that the Steelers are not the ideal team to maximize his stat output. In the past, the Steelers have been extremely run oriented. The year they broke away from that mold and stretched the field was in 2002 - Hines had his best year totaling over 1,300 receiving yards.

Under new offensive coordinator, Bruce Arians, the Steelers will again look to stretch the field in 2007, but the main beneficiary will likely be Santonio Holmes. Holmes is better suited for the deep balls and will have a higher YPC than Ward.

Also, just because they'll be stretching the field this year doesn't mean you should confuse them with the Cincinnati Bengals, or their old "Tommy Gun" era. The Steelers offensive attack will be more balanced, not a relentless air attack.

Around Ward's ADP you'll find WRs such as Donald Driver, Plaxico Burress, and Calvin Johnson. The safe picks from that bunch are Donald Driver and Ward, with Driver winning out in terms of overall value.

When removing their highest scoring game along with their lowest scoring games here's how the two panned out last year. Standard scoring, every 10 receiving yards = 1 point; every TD = 6 points.

Hines Ward: 7.3 fantasy points per week
Donald Driver: 10.4 fantasy points per week

The numbers say it all and that trend should carry over into 2007.

Contrary to what some may believe, the Steelers actually have a number of valuable weapons at WR and TE. The days of Hines Ward being their only threat are now over. He'll still catch a lot of balls but the odds are against him breaking 1,000 yards.

If faced with a scenario where you have Ward and Driver still on the board, go with Donald Driver. Or, you can wait a round and hope that guys like Braylon Edwards or Mark Clayton fall to you. Both are entering that coveted third year and both can match Ward’s output, but at a much better price.


Larry Fitzgerald
Larry Fitzgerald is a complete WR with all of the tools necessary to succeed. The only thing not to like about him is his ADP of 20, which makes him, on average, the third or fourth WR off the board in many drafts.

His 2005 season of 1,409 yards to go with 10 touchdowns is certainly top three material. But, that was done with Kurt Warner at QB in an offense with no running game. Further, last year’s Cardinals loved to sling the ball around the field as soon as they fell behind. Over the last three weeks of the 2006 season, Fitzgerald averaged 5.3 Receptions, 15.6 Yards/Rec, 83.0 Total Yards and 0.67 TDs per game.

Enter new Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt. He led the Steelers to the most rushing attempts in the league in two out of his three years as their offensive coordinator. Such a statistic speaks volumes – he’s committed to the ground attack.

If you're locked in on a WR in the second round you'll find better value with Mr. Consistent himself, Marvin Harrison (ranked 2nd in receiving yards last year and shows no signs of slowing down), Torry Holt or Reggie Wayne. You may also be inclined to bypass taking a WR at this point to focus on RB, given the severe drop off in talent after the second round. There's a good possibility that Terrell Owens will still be available early in the third, along with the likes of Roy Williams, both of whom can very well match or surpass Fitzgerald's production.


T.J. Houshmandzadeh
T.J. has a history of being dinged up from time to time, which is one thing that hurts his value, two games missed in 2005 and 2006 each. Not a big red flag, but still a concern.

My main issue is whether or not the Bengals passing attack will be firing on all cylinders this year considering they hit some cold spots in 2006. Their offensive line could face some hard times with Eric Steinbach leaving the team and both Willie Anderson and Levi Jones questionable due to injury.

When you break it down, there are a handful of WRs with more upside that should still be available around T.J.’s ADP.

I prefer Randy Moss, Lee Evans and Donald Driver. All three should be the #1 target in their team’s weekly passing gameplan. You can’t say the same for T.J. Though you can argue that Moss is just a situational deep threat, he still has the ability to put up some of the most explosive numbers in the league if he can stay healthy.

At TJ’s ADP, you might even target a different position and come back to WR in a round or two.

Reggie Brown should be a steal if McNabb stays healthy. Also, with a much lower draft pick, Braylon Edwards and Mark Clayton will be around. All three of these WRs have big potential and all are entering their prime.


Deuce McAllister
Deuce McAllister is yet another victim of the Running Back By Committee (RBBC) approach.

RBBC can be good news if you're a Saints fan, but bad news for fantasy fanatics. RBBC particularly devalues a handful of good runners in 2007, McAllister being one of them.

It's unfortunate because we'll never be able to see whether or not Deuce could fully bounce back from the injuries that plagued him shortly after his 1,641-yard season back in 2003. If not for the RBBC, McAllister could regain his spot as an upper echelon NFL RB. However given he’s splitting time with former first round pick Reggie Bush, baring injury, we’ll never see it happen.

244 carries with McAllister’s ADP of 38 isn't going to cut it, especially when considering that number could take another slight dip this year. The Saints didn't draft Reggie Bush to only be a threat in their receiving game, ultimately they want to continue to mold him into the most versatile weapon that he can possibly be, which means trying to get him more carries this year.

Now that the Jets Thomas Jones (leg) will be used in a fulltime role, he presents a much better upside than McAllister. Jones has an ADP of 30, so there's a possibility that he could drop to the 38th slot making for a more valuable pick.

For arguments sake, let's say that McAllister does break his current 4for4.com projection of 940 total yards and matches his 1,255 total yards from 2006. Even then, you can still find that same production in later rounds with the likes of Jamal Lewis or perhaps even Jerious Norwood or Ahman Green.